Let’s focus on our shared values

Flag flying over Liberty Island, 2009

The following op-ed, "Let's focus on our shared values", appeared in Raleigh's News and Observer on November 27, 2012. 

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My daughter, Michaela, recently encouraged our family to keep things positive and be careful not to offend those with whom we share this great country, even if we may not share their political preferences.  I thank her for a timely reminder, and for the hope that it represents, coming from a twentysomething with strong political preferences of her own.

This great United States of America came into existence thanks in no small part to the willingness of our forefathers to compromise.  They found ways to latch on to values they shared as they struggled to reconcile their tremendous differences.  Our very form of government depends on compromise and reconciliation.

In that spirit, I suggest that each one of us takes as much time as it takes, and exerts as much effort as it requires, to find common ground with our fellow Americans.  Yes we have differences, sharp and serious.  But we may share much more than we think.

Maybe reminding ourselves of all the things we together love about the USA will help us and our leaders figure out how to work out compromises to solve our current and future problems.  It worked in 1776 (Declaration of Independence), 1787 (Constitution), and 1791 (Bill of Rights), and they were at least as passionate as we are, and I hope we are as smart as they were.

I offer below a list of items upon which to begin a search for common ground.  Consider them, change them, add to them.  Discuss them with your fellow Americans.  Talk about them with your neighbors next door and across the street, at the gym, at the game, at work, in letters to the editor.  Search long and hard for the things that both of you like and value, and focus your attention, laserlike, on those things.  Let those shared values form the basis for a civil conversation that celebrates the things we all love about our country.

• I want my children and grandchildren (may we be so blessed), to lead happy, healthy, and safe lives enjoying the freedoms guaranteed by our Constitution and Bill of Rights.
• I value a strong economy where everyone is enabled and encouraged to find or even create a good job that gives them the chance to exercise their talents and abilities, provide for their well-being, and contribute productively to our common good.
• I want our country to continue to be a model and a shining light for freedom and liberty and tolerance and diversity.
• I hope that the USA can continue to be a force for good around the world, both by our example and by sharing our time, talent, and treasure.
• I want America to continue to protect its neediest citizens even as it provides the foundation upon which its most talented citizens build successful lives.
• I value a natural environment surrounding me that reflects the diversity, productivity, and resilience found in healthy ecological systems, and that provides at the least cost possible, breathable clean air, drinkable pure water, and delicious healthy food.
• I hope that all of our communities can continue to provide the structures that support our comfortable and productive lives: fire and police protection; good roads; abundant greenways, parks and playing fields; power utilities; water and waste utilities; engineering and safety standards; objective journalism outlets; and communications networks.
• I value an educational system that provides a common, excellent learning experience for all of us, that teaches about the things that make the USA a beacon around the world, and that shares the best understanding we have of history, language, science, society, and mathematics with all of our students.
• I want our elected and appointed leaders to respect our history, understand this world in which we live, value our diversity, appeal to the best in each of us, and bring us together as they improve our union.
• I hope my children and grandchildren will, as I do, feel a lump in their throat or a tear in their eye whenever they hear or sing The Star Spangled Banner, America the Beautiful, and God Bless America.

Lady Liberty on a visit in June, 2009

Climate Change Science

 

Bottom Left Image Source: TAO Project Office, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Lab.
Right Image Source: University Corporation for Atmospheric Lab.
Top Left Image Source: NASA

From time to time it is helpful to refer someone to a readily available online source of reliable and objective information about climate change science.  There are many sources from which to choose, but there is one that appears to clearly take the honors when it comes to objectivity and integrity.  That source is the National Research Council (NRC).  The National Research Council was formed by the National Academies of Sciences, and regarding the National Academies, here's a brief statement from the "About Us" portion of their website.

"The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) was signed into being by President Abraham Lincoln on March 3, 1863. As mandated in its Act of Incorporation, the Academy has, since 1863, served to "investigate, examine, experiment, and report upon any subject of science or art" whenever called upon to do so by any department of the government"

 The National Academies formed the National Research Council in 1916 "...to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government."

So without further elaboration, here is the link to a concise summary of the best available understanding of climate change science as of the current  year, 2012.  Enjoy!


CLIMATE CHANGE: Evidence, Impacts, and Choices
Answers to common questions about the science of climate change

A little lesson about the positive feedback effect

Sent the following to the News and Observer of Raleigh, they printed it on 11/9/12 (link to online version complete with reader comments below):

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In his letter of 11/7, William Everett reports that scientists found a case where temperatures increased before atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.  Everett claims this finding invalidates the climate change concept that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations cause temperature increases, since one would expect the carbon dioxide to increase first if it caused a temperature increase.

I believe the report Everett cites refers to climate 20 thousand years ago, and there are times in Earth's history where temperature does increase first, and a carbon dioxide increase follows.  What Everett failed to add is that oftentimes when this happens, the increase in carbon dioxide causes a further and much larger increase in temperature.  And the initial smaller temperature rise was caused by changes in Earth's orbit and orientation (Milankovitch cycles) that simply do not cause today's warming.

A study by Jeremy Shakun, published in the science journal, Nature (volume 484, April 2012), presents convincing evidence that rising carbon dioxide concentrations caused global temperatures to increase from 18 to 11 thousand years ago.  This is but one of many lines of evidence indicating that rising carbon dioxide concentrations in our atmosphere do cause an increase in temperature and consequent climate changes.

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http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/11/09/2472857/denis-dubay-greenhouse-effect.html

Global Warming: A Matter of Balance

Don't cringe, this will not be a political essay. It's about the science.

Global warming is all about energy, since it is energy which determines the temperature, or average heat content, of an object.

Over the next few minutes I will ask you to think about three connected facts about energy which together define the basis for global warming and climate on Earth:

1. Earth receives incoming energy from the Sun in the form of visible sunlight.
   
2. Earth emits or loses outgoing energy to space in the form of invisible infrared radiation.
   
3. The balance between this incoming sunlight energy and the outgoing infrared energy determines Earth's average heat content and therefore, climate.
   

POINT ONE - Earth Receives Energy From Sunlight

So, if the Earth's energy content affects the planet's temperature, understanding global warming requires knowing where and how the Earth gets its energy. Virtually all of the energy that influences the temperature of the Earth's surface comes from the Sun as visible sunlight.

Most of this incoming sunlight energy is absorbed by either the air in the atmosphere, the water in the oceans, or by solid objects on the land - like soil, rocks, and plants. When sunlight energy is absorbed, it warms the objects absorbing it - recall the last time you touched a surface warmed by the sun or felt your skin warmed by sunlight.

However, not all of the sunlight energy headed towards the Earth is absorbed - some of it is reflected away from the planet before it can be absorbed - by light-colored surfaces such as clouds, snow, and ice. Reflected sunlight energy is NOT absorbed, and does not add to Earth's energy content. Thus it's cooler on a cloudy day than it is on a sunny day.

POINT TWO

Less well-known is the fact that the Earth loses energy to space about as rapidly as it gains energy from sunlight. This energy lost to space is called infrared radiation, which is just light energy of a different wavelength than visible sunlight. This infrared energy radiates or moves out from solid objects, water, air, even you and me! If you want to feel infrared radiation, put your hand close to, but not touching, your face. Your hand and face both feel warmer, because both feel or sense the infrared energy radiating from your body.

This outbound infrared radiation moves in all directions, eventually escaping through the atmosphere into space.

However, there are invisible gases in the atmosphere which can block the escape of infrared energy from the Earth into space. The most important gases that can do this are water vapor and carbon dioxide.

When there is more water vapor or carbon dioxide in the air, these gases intercept and absorb more of the infrared radiation otherwise on its way to space.

As a result, these gases themselves get warmer, and in turn radiate infrared energy, some of it back towards Earth's surface, some of it out to space. The infrared energy radiated back to the surface of the planet causes an overall increase in Earth's heat content - something called the greenhouse effect - because it resembles what happens on a sunny day inside a greenhouse (or your car with closed windows). Sunlight passes through the clear glass, but the resulting infrared heat energy cannot escape through that same glass, and the energy content - temperature - of the greenhouse, or your car, increases.

Charles Darwin's greenhouse at his family estate in Down

This greenhouse effect is really an example of the THIRD and final POINT - that the balance of incoming energy minus outgoing energy determines Earth's average heat content, and controls the climate.

If the amount of sunlight energy absorbed by the Earth is exactly balanced by the amount of infrared radiation escaping the Earth, the planet is in energy balance, and the overall average energy content of Earth remains constant. In this case, overall climate averages would not change.

But as described above for incoming sunlight and outgoing infrared energy, from time to time things happen in the atmosphere or on the surface of the Earth that change that balance of incoming and outgoing energy. As a result of those changes, Earth's energy balance gets out of whack and average climates can change.

What has all of this got to do with you and me and our children and grandchildren?

Scientists measuring the amount of carbon dioxide in the air, and where it comes from, have determined that our burning of coal, oil, and natural gas, along with cutting down vast areas of forest around the world, has caused the average amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to increase from 265 parts of carbon dioxide per million parts of other air molecules before the industrial revolution, to almost 400 ppm carbon dioxide today. And the energy imbalance and temperature increase caused by that rise in carbon dioxide has, in turn, caused more liquid water to evaporate into the atmosphere, further increasing the greenhouse effect - adding more to the energy imbalance initially triggered by the increase in carbon dioxide.

Of course, as with any measurement, there are uncertainties about how much or how little. How much carbon dioxide will cause how much of an energy imbalance will cause how much global warming and climate change. And subject to even more uncertainty is what we might do about it all.

But if you remember that global warming and climate change arise from an imbalance in the energy coming to the Earth and the energy leaving the Earth, I think you'll be better prepared to evaluate new information as it's discovered and presented, and make informed and intelligent decisions when you have the opportunity.

THE SCIENTIST WHO CRIED WOLF AND THE SQUEEZE IN

So what do Paul Ehrlich and a delicious restaurant in Truckee, California called the Squeeze In have in common? They are both featured in this story of course!

The scientist who cried wolf, Paul Ehrlich, surely made a mistake predicting mass starvation and environmental disaster from overpopulation in the 1960s. However, his caution was well-founded, and we would be making a mistake at least as serious to ignore the impact of humanity on the environment today.

The world's population has more than doubled from 3 billion in 1960 to nearly 7 billion today. Add to that increase in raw numbers of people an increase in the average standard of living for each person and you have a prescription for significant planet-wide environmental degradation.

Questions about the global carrying capacity for humans justifiably bear more weight today than they should have in 1960, but yet many dismiss the concerns as more of the same environmental doomsaying. Unfortunately, the world is vastly different today than in 1960 - 7 billion better-living people take up more space and use more resources than 3 billion mostly poor did 50 years ago.

Can the world handle 7 billion people over the long run? How about 9 billion people, a number we could reach before the middle of this century?

Questions of carrying capacity and sustainability are difficult to answer, and for many different reasons. First is the obvious issue of scale, the planet is big and measurements of agricultural productivity, water availability, suitable climates for growing food dwarf our worldwide data collection capabilities. But even if we manage to grow our data collection abilities with aerial and satellite observations, there is another basic problem.

Carrying capacity depends on the quality of life we are willing to accept. If we all require a single-family home on a quarter-acre of land, well, we better find a couple more planets, because we've already exceeded the carrying capacity of this Earth with 7 billion people. If we are all willing to live in small high-rise apartments and eat mostly a vegetarian diet, 9 billion or so might squeeze in.

The Squeeze In featured little elbow room in its 1970s edition as I recall (but delicious omelettes!), and we will all have very little metaphorical elbow room soon. That is, little food, little spare space, little oil or gas, and fewer species of beautiful plants and animals with which to share our good fortune of having a planet we call home. Are you ready to squeeze in?

Eat Less Meat!

From the News and Observer (Raleigh, NC) on November 19:

In his Nov. 16 letter to the News and Observer, "We need the meat," a veterinarian claims that "the world now has about 7 billion people and they sure aren't going to be fed adequately with spinach and snow peas." He suggests that more people would be better fed if farms provided more meat, not less. He could not be further from the truth.

Assume it takes 10 acres to grow enough plants to feed one cow. And assume that one cow could feed 10 people. If instead of eating beef the people ate the plants grown on the 10 acres, there would be enough nutritious vegetables to feed about 100 people. Farmers can thus provide food for about 10 times as many people if those people eat vegetables than if they eat meat.

This is not to suggest that everyone become a vegetarian. However, significantly reducing our average consumption of meat would help the world's farmers provide enough food for everyone. Of course, there are also undeniable health advantages to eating less meat and more vegetables. Instead of "Where's the beef?" we might better ask "Where's the spinach, squash, tomato and tofu?"

-Denis DuBay, Ph.D.

A Review of TERC's* Earth Exploration Toolbook

The Earth Exploration Toolbook (EET) is much more than a set of digital online classroom activities related to earth and environmental science. It is that - a very good set of activities accompanied by excellent supporting documentation - but it is also a guide to learning how to access any available online science datasets and analyze them with the appropriate software tools. As such, this is not only a resource for educators, but as TERC points out, citizens and policy makers might also make good use of the Toolbook.

The Earth Exploration Toolbook at last count contained 43 active chapters and two retired chapters. Retired chapters used datasets and/or analysis tools that are no longer readily accessible. A useful index categorizes chapters by both earth/environmental science topic (eg., atmosphere, biosphere, climate, etc.) as well as by technology tool used to obtain and analyze the data (eg., spreadsheets and image analysis, etc.).

Anyone may use the Toolbook to learn new skills with which they may then find and analyze online earth/environmental science data for themselves. This is the feature that surprised me most about the site. I was expecting a set of classroom activities, and as I said, each chapter can be used in that fashion - a stand-alone classroom activity complete with background information, objectives, and detailed instructions for students. But the Toolbook can serve another purpose, enhancing the professional development of teachers or anyone else with an interest in better understanding current topics by improving their ability to find and explore online earth and environmental science datasets. Do not overlook this opportunity.

As for the individual chapters, 17 of the 43 are directly related to the atmosphere and/or climate. Other topics include biosphere, earth's cycles, geography, human dimensions, hydrology, oceans, solar system and astronomy, solid earth, surface processes, and time/earth history. Most chapters make use of spreadsheets, but many also involve image analysis tools and GIS mapping tools. Additional technology tools include online graphing, data portals, and modelling.

The supporting documentation is simply outstanding. Beware, these are not, for the most part, activities you can complete in a single hour. For example, "Climate History from Deep Sea Sediments" estimates at least three hours will be needed.

Every chapter comes with a brief opening description, then detailed teaching notes. Teaching notes include an example output of the activity, target grade level, goals, rationale, brief science background, pre-requisites, specific instructional and assessment strategies (including questions), content standards met, and time required. Every chapter focuses on a case study, and provides detailed information and background preparatory to tackling the assignments. Only then come the detailed step-by-step instructions for accessing online data, acquiring the analysis tools, and performing the data analysis and interpretation.

The step-by-step instructions are detailed, well-documented and illustrated, and include many screen-captures to guide the novice. The "Climate History from Deep Sea Sediments" chapter mentioned above includes 34 screenshots (!), most of them provided as pull-down images available with a click of the mouse, but not cluttering up your screen unless and until you require them.

The step-by-step instructions contain the meat of each chapter, and include many interpretive questions for you to consider as you access, view, and analyze the datasets. Each chapter concludes with an array of additional questions and resources for follow-up and extension activities. Expect to save online data and new software tools to your computer as you work through a chapter.

This is a resource worth exploring and utilizing. It will take some time, but it will be time well-spent. Expect to learn skills you will employ again. If you are a teacher, expect to help your students acquire skills they will use in their future as well as in your class.

On an introductory "About the Earth Exploration Toolbook" page is a paragraph addressing the question, "Why teach with data?" If you needed another reminder that science is a process of discovering new knowledge and not a matter of memorizing facts, this is it. Don't miss it.
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* TERC was founded in 1965 as the Technical Education Resource Centers, and is located in Cambridge, MA. The Earth Exploration Toolbook is a National Science Foundation-funded collaboration between TERC and the Science Education Resource Center at Carleton College in Northfield, MN.